A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
